Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

10795 13 35076 2 78203 document 35076 Climate change induced transformations.pdf application/pdf 6d6ffc5247f20f3b369df4e7286a5901 MD5 1316687 2016-02-29 08:56:54 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10795/1/Climate%20change%20induced%20transformations.pdf 10795 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Climate change induced transformations.pdf

published 35077 2 78206 document 35077 lightbox.jpg image/png ebc7586325de49632a4ce710c9afc506 MD5 13520 2016-02-29 08:57:01 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10795/2/lightbox.jpg 10795 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/35076 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/35076 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/35076 archive 351 disk0/00/01/07/95 2016-01-15 08:50:14 2025-03-12 05:00:12 2016-01-15 08:50:14 article show Leclère D. 2000 0000-0002-8658-1509 Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Fuss S. 8259 Schmid E. Mosnier A. 1894 Walsh B. 8806 0000-0003-1689-2309 Valin H. 1923 0000-0002-0618-773X Herrero M. Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model pub iis_env prog_esm agriculture, climate change, adaptation, transformational change, uncertainty, robust adaptation, agrcultural systems Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere's temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis. 2014-12 published Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124018 XJ-14-255 [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124018] 174 119 101 212 322 316 151 219 public Environmental Research Letters 9 12 no.124018 124018 TRUE 1748-9326 GLOBIOM FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article