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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1110 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1110 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1110 archive 351 disk0/00/00/10/98 2016-01-15 01:46:14 2021-08-27 17:09:18 2016-01-15 01:46:14 monograph show 3 Arthur W.B. 518 pub iis_pop iis_met prog_sds A large part of mathematical demography is built upon one fundamental theorem, the "strong ergodic theorem" of demography. If the fertility and mortality age-schedules of a population remain unchanged over time, its age distribution, no matter what its initial shape, will converge in time to a fixed and stable form. In brief, when demographic behavior remains unchanged, the population, it is said, converges to stability. This short paper presents a new argument for the convergence of the age structure, one that is self-contained, and that brings the mechanism behind convergence into full view. The idea is simple. Looked at directly, the dynamics of the age-distribution say little to our normal intuition. Looked at from a slightly different angle though, population dynamics define a smoothing or averaging process over the generations -- a process comfortable to our intuition. This smoothing and resmoothing turns out to be the mechanism that forces the age structure toward a fixed and final form. 1979-10 published WP-79-085 WP-79-085 1694 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 11 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book