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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/4 archive 351 disk0/00/00/00/11 2016-01-15 01:40:30 2021-08-27 17:07:18 2016-01-15 01:40:30 monograph show 3 Winkler R.L. AL0421 Murphy A.H. AL0279 pub iis_met prog_sds The age-old question of the generalizability of the results of experiments that are conducted in artificial laboratory settings to more realistic inferential and decision making situations is considered in this paper. Conservatism in probability revision provides an example of a result that 1) has received wide attention, including attention in terms of implications for real-world decision making, on the basis of experiments conducted in artificial settings and 2) is now apparently thought by many to be highly situational and not at all a ubiquitous phenomenon, in which case its implications for real-world decision making are not as extensive as originally claimed. In this paper we consider the questions of generalizations from the laboratory to the real world in some detail, both within the context of the experiments regarding conservatism and within a more general context. In addition, we discuss some of the difficulties inherent in experimentation in realistic settings, suggest possible procedures for avoiding or at least alleviating such difficulties, and make a plea for more realistic experiments. 1973-12 published RR-73-015 RR-73-015 10 2520 2216 public research_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 44 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book