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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1121 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1121 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1121 archive 351 disk0/00/00/11/09 2016-01-15 01:46:17 2021-08-27 17:09:20 2016-01-15 01:46:17 monograph show 4 Clapham W.B. AL1604 Pestel R.F. AL1605 Arnaszus H. AL1606 pub iis_mod iis_fag prog_fag prog_mmt prog_ren This paper reviews the major issues posed by scenario-based simulation modeling in the policy process, using agricultural policy as an example of a complex decision arena. Policy is seen as a process by which decision-makers use the instruments under their control to approach the general goals of society. Models can help to choose instrument settings, evaluate policy option, and assess their appropriateness to a particular situation. But they cannot design policy; the interactions between policy-makers and models are critical if modeling is to be useful in the policy process. Policy models must be oriented to the factors that focus and constrain judgements in the real world, as well as toward the substantive problems motivating analyses. These include the actors within the system, as well as the geographic and disciplinary contexts of the problems. Scenario-writing provides a way of ordering understanding and judgement about different phenomena to help users interact most effectively with a model and to insure that the perspectives of the model are most appropriate to the needs of the decision-maker. It is an iterative and evolutionary process which can provide a great deal of insight into the assessment phase of policy design. 1979-08 published WP-79-074 WP-79-074 2567 2568 2569 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 35 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book