A Stochastic Approach to Model Uncertainty

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WP-79-063.pdf

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WP-79-063.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1133 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1133 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1133 archive 351 disk0/00/00/11/20 2016-01-15 01:46:20 2021-08-27 17:09:22 2016-01-15 01:46:20 monograph show 2 Fedra K. 1049 A Stochastic Approach to Model Uncertainty pub iis_wat iis_mod iis_met prog_ren A stochastic approach for modeling uncertain and incompletely known ecosystems, using a lake modeling example, is proposed. In order to estimate the reliability and precision of model predictions based on uncertain data from ecological systems, the explicit inclusion of the uncertainty in the numerical modeling approach is advocated. Starting with a fuzzy definition of systems behavior in terms of a behaviour space region, the corresponding region in the data space of a given model is explored by Monte Carlo techniques. A set of data vectors -- random samples from the data space region corresponding to the empirical range of systems behaviour -- is then used to generate independent estimates of states or outputs for selected deterministic inputs. These estimates have to be understood as random samples from a probabilistic behaviour space which reflects the initial uncertainty in data space delimitation. The estimates are used to establish probability distributions for systems states or outputs (cross-sections of the probabilistic behaviour space) for the given input conditions. These probability distributions replace the deterministic point-estimates of a traditional approach, and reflect the incomplete knowledge about the system as well as the stochastic variability of ecosystems. The approach is extended for long-term simulations of systems behavior under changed input conditions, and estimates of prediction accuracy in time are obtained. 1979-08 published WP-79-063 WP-79-063 1241 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 45 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book