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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13806 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13806 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13806 archive 351 disk0/00/01/12/62 2016-01-15 08:52:24 2021-08-27 17:24:47 2016-01-15 08:52:24 monograph show 2 Ediev D. 2019 0000-0001-7503-5142 pub iis_pop prog_pop Formal relations are used to demonstrate inability of the relational Brass mortality model to keep up with declining mortality at old age. In order to adjust the model, a descriptive study is undertaken of mortality shifts at old age. To this end, ages X(M) at given levels of the mortality rate are studied. When arranged as functions of the life expectancy at birth, those ages show increasing steepness of the trend. This pattern is explained by approaching, as mortality declines, to upper limits of period mortality compression. In order to take this changing pattern into account, we obtain empirical lower-bound limits to X(M) and fit a quadratic regression lines to the lower bounds. Our models of lower-bound limits may be useful both in examining tendencies in period mortality shift and compression and as a starting point in adjusting the mortality projection models at older age. They may also be useful in the continuing discussion of prospects for further mortality decline. 2014-03 published IR-14-004 IR-14-004 76 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 36 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book