Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit

11314 12 70826 2 196182 document 70826 Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit.pdf application/pdf 334c37891cc7bdb715ab19dccf3403d0 MD5 2046024 2016-09-08 06:58:30 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11314/1/Assessing%20water%20resource%20system%20vulnerability%20to%20unprecedented%20hydrological%20drought%20using%20copulas%20to%20characterize%20drought%20duration%20and%20deficit.pdf 11314 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc

Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit.pdf

published 70832 2 196191 document 70832 lightbox.jpg image/png 8f2b1c23b0da6430ccb72939d124d518 MD5 61239 2016-09-08 07:08:42 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11314/2/lightbox.jpg 11314 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70826 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70826 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/70826 archive 351 disk0/00/01/13/14 2016-01-15 08:52:38 2025-03-26 05:00:11 2016-01-15 08:52:38 article show Borgomeo E. Pflug G. 1361 0000-0001-8215-3550 Hall J.W. Hochrainer-Stigler S. 7958 0000-0002-9929-8171 Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit pub iis_rsp prog_risk prog_rpv prog_ysp hydrological drought; copula; hydrological persistence; vulnerability-based; drought vulnerability; climate change robustness Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration, changing storm tracks and moisture delivery in many parts of the world which are likely to cause more prolonged and severe drought, yet the weakness of climate models in modelling persistence of hydro-climatic variables and the uncertainties associated with regional climate projections mean that impact assessmnts based on climate model output may underestimate the risk of multi-year droughts. In this paper we propose a vulnerability-based approach to test water resource system response to drought. We generate a large number of synthetic streamflow series with different drought durations and deficits and use them as input to a water resource system model. Marginal distributions of the streamflow for each month are generated by bootstrapping the historical data, while the joint probability distributions of consecutive months are constructed using a copula-based method. Droughts with longer durations and larger deficits than the observed record are generated by perturbing the copula parameter and by adopting an importance sampling strategy for low flows. In this way potential climate-induced changes in monthly hydrological persistence are factored into the vulnerability analysis. The method is applied to the London water system (England) to investigate under which drought conditions severe water use restrictions would need to be imposed. Results indicate that the water system is vulnerable to drought conditions outside the range of historical events. The vulnerability assessment results were coupled with climate model information to compare alternative water management options with respect to their vulnerability to increasingly long and severe drought. 2015-11 published Wiley 10.1002/2015WR017324 XJ-15-285 Water Resources Research; 51(11):8927-8948 [November 2015] (Published online 29 October 2015) [doi:10.1002/2015WR017324] 229 126 public Water Resources Research 51 11 8927-8948 TRUE 0043-1397 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article