A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

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esd-6-447-2015.pdf

published 33612 2 72250 document 33612 lightbox.jpg image/png 44036f31c3dbf14cd8111224128ccb16 MD5 48472 2016-02-23 09:06:10 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11421/2/lightbox.jpg 11421 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33610 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33610 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33610 archive 351 disk0/00/01/14/21 2016-01-15 08:53:12 2021-08-27 17:25:05 2016-01-15 08:53:12 article show 1 Frieler K. Levermann A. Elliott J. Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties pub iis_env prog_esm Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). Onthe other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfillment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expanion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MI), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making. 2015-07 published Copernicus 10.5194/esd-6-447-2015 XJ-15-141 Earth System Dynamics; 6(2):447-460 (July 2015) [doi:10.5194/esd-6-447-2015] 151 public Earth System Dynamics 6 2 447-460 TRUE 2190-4987 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article