Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals

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Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size.pdf

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Rogelj_2016_Environ._Res._Lett._11_129503.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/76086 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/76086 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/76086 archive 351 disk0/00/01/14/23 2016-01-15 08:53:13 2021-08-27 17:25:05 2016-01-15 08:53:13 article show Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Reisinger A. 8585 McCollum D.L. 8484 Knutti R. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Meinshausen M. Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals pub iis_ene prog_ene Global-mean temperature increase is roughly proportional to cumulative emissions of carbon-dioxide (CO2). Limiting global warming to any level thus implies a finite CO2 budget. Due to geophysical uncertainties, the size of such budgets can only be expressed in probabilistic terms and is further influenced by non-CO2 emissions. We here explore how societal choices related to energy demand and specific mitigation options influence the size of carbon budgets for meeting a given temperature objective. We find that choices that exclude specific CO2 mitigation technologies (like Carbon Capture and Storage) result in greater costs, smaller compatible CO2 budgets until 2050, but larger CO2 budgets until 2100. Vice versa, choices that lead to a larger CO2 mitigation potential result in CO2 budgets until 2100 that are smaller but can be met at lower costs.In most cases, these budget variations can be explained by the amount of non-CO2 mitigation that is carried out in conjunction wih CO2, and associated global carbon prices that also drive mitigation of non-CO2 gases. Budget variations are of the order of 10% round their central value. In all cases, limiting warming to below 2 degrees C thus still implies that CO2 emissions need to be reduced raidly in the coming decades. 2015-07 published Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075003 XJ-15-139 [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075003] 254 1529 203 250 public Environmental Research Letters 10 7 no.075003 75003 TRUE 1748-9326 http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/129501 publ FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article