Participatory scenario development to address potential impacts of land use change: an example from the Italian Alps

11429 13 67921 2 187856 document 67921 Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change.pdf application/pdf 4536e85ea0224884ab3a06202ada9472 MD5 10494802 2016-07-25 08:05:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11429/1/Participatory%20Scenario%20Development%20to%20Address%20Potential%20Impacts%20of%20Land%20Use%20Change.pdf 11429 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change.pdf

published 67922 2 187860 document 67922 lightbox.jpg image/png 3b0ae9a1844c0d8dffc84b9760fef9bd MD5 27535 2016-07-25 08:06:03 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11429/2/lightbox.jpg 11429 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/67921 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/67921 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/67921 archive 351 disk0/00/01/14/29 2016-01-15 08:53:14 2023-10-17 05:00:28 2016-01-15 08:53:14 article show Malek Z. 1957 0000-0002-6981-6708 Boerboom L. Participatory scenario development to address potential impacts of land use change: an example from the Italian Alps pub iis_rsp prog_risk prog_rpv Land use change, scenarios, tourism, hydro-meteorological hazards, spatial simulation, stakeholders, Alps, Italy Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientsts in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeing future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism developmnt. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic infrmation systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generate spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development. 2015-05 published International Mountain Society ; JSTOR 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-14-00082.1 XJ-15-133 Mountain Research and Development; 35(2):126-138 (May 2015) [doi:10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-14-00082.1] 2606 public Mountain Research and Development 35 2 126-138 TRUE 1994-7151 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article