Impacts of emission reductions on aerosol radiative effects

11439 14 33111 2 70853 document 33111 acp-15-5501-2015.pdf application/pdf 738f9c4a847e89cbc9687a61ee649f0e MD5 4077843 2016-02-19 12:42:08 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11439/1/acp-15-5501-2015.pdf 11439 1 1 application/pdf text en public

acp-15-5501-2015.pdf

published 33132 2 70898 document 33132 lightbox.jpg image/png e22eb22b654840a9ba3d76f5bf297cdc MD5 53394 2016-02-19 12:52:14 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11439/2/lightbox.jpg 11439 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33111 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33111 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33111 archive 351 disk0/00/01/14/39 2016-01-15 08:53:16 2021-08-27 17:25:07 2016-01-15 08:53:16 article show 1 Pietikainen J.-P. Kupiainen K. 7906 Klimont Z. 1473 0000-0003-2630-198X Makkonen R. Korhonen H. AL0871 Karinkanta R. Hyvarinen A.-P. Karvosenoja N. 7823 Laaksonen A. Lihaveinen H. Kerminen V.-M. Impacts of emission reductions on aerosol radiative effects pub iis_env prog_mag prog_air The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ was used to investigate changes in the aerosol burden and aerosol radiative effects in the coming decades. Four different emissions scenarios were applied for 2030 (two of them applied also for 2020) and the results were compared against the reference year 2005. Two of the scenarios are based on current legislation reductions: one shows the maximum potential of reductions that can be achieved by technical measures, and the other is targeted to short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). We have analyzed the results in terms of global mean and additionally focused on eight subregions. Based on our results, aerosol burdens show an overall decreasing trend as they basically follow the changes in primary and precursor emissions. However, in some locations, such as India, the burdens could increase significantly. The declining emissions have an impact on the clear-sky direct aerosol effect (DRE), i.e. the cooling effect. The DRE could decrease globally 0.06-0.4 W m^-2 by 2030 with some regional increases, for example, over India (up to 0.84 W m^-2). The global changes in the DRE depend on the scenario and are smallest in the targeted SLCF simulation. The aerosol indirect radiative effect could decline 0.25-0.82 W m^-2 by 2030. This decrease takes place mostly over the oceans, whereas the DRE changes are greatest over the continents. Our results show that targeted emission reduction measures can be a much better choice for the climate than overall high reductions globally. Our simulations also suggest that more than half of the near-future forcing change is due to the radiative effects associated with aerosol.cloud interactions. 2015-05 published European Geosciences Union (EGU) 10.5194/acp-15-5501-2015 XJ-15-123 Atmospheric Chemistry; 15:5501-5519 (May 2015) [doi:10.5194/acp-15-5501-2015] 170 159 1383 1363 public Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15 5501-5519 TRUE 1680-7324 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article