The future size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations

11450 11 33198 2 71118 document 33198 32-27.pdf application/pdf d0e77d441d151ffaeccef7b303ffa903 MD5 352101 2016-02-19 16:10:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11450/1/32-27.pdf 11450 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc

32-27.pdf

published 33247 2 71210 document 33247 lightbox.jpg image/png 6124d49140fd3ad48a345476de0d9bc9 MD5 21435 2016-02-19 16:20:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11450/2/lightbox.jpg 11450 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33198 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33198 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33198 archive 351 disk0/00/01/14/50 2016-01-15 08:53:18 2021-08-27 17:25:08 2016-01-15 08:53:18 article show Hackett C. Stonawski M. 8279 Potančoková M. 1985 0000-0001-6115-5952 Grim B.J. Skirbekk V. 7986 The future size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations pub iis_pop prog_pop Background: People who are religiously unaffiliated (including self-identifying atheists and agnostics, as well as those who say their religion is "nothing particular") made up 16.4% of the world's population in 2010. Unaffiliated populations have been growing in North America and Europe, leading some to expect that this group will grow as a share of the world's population. However, such forecasts overlook the impact of demographic factors, such as fertility and the large, aging unaffiliated population in Asia. Objective: We project the future size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations around the world. Methods: We use multistate cohort-component methods to project the size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations. Projection inputs such as religious composition, differential fertility and age structure data, as well as religious switching patterns, are based on the best available census and survey data for each country. This research is based on an analysis of more than 2,500 data sources. Results: Taking demographic factors into account, we project that the unaffiliated will make up 13.2% of the world's population in 2050. The median age of religiously affiliated women is six years younger than unaffiliated women. The 2010-15 Total Fertility Rate for those with a religious affiliation is 2.59 children per woman, nearly a full child higher than the rate for the unaffiliated (1.65 children per woman). Conclusions: The religiously unaffiliated are projected to decline as a share of the world's population in the decades ahead because their net growth through religious switching will be more than offset by higher childbearing among the younger affiliated population. KEYWRODS: demographic change; fertility; projection; religion; secular; unaffiliated 2015-04 published Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research 10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.27 XJ-15-112 Demographic Research; 32(1):829-842 (April 2015) [doi:10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.27] 297 236 1575 public Demographic Research 32 1 829-842 TRUE 1435-9871 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article