Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment

11502 8 33199 2 71122 document 33199 32-15.pdf application/pdf 40a6f5fbf9ab75bbdfba65a639cbd0ad MD5 1318699 2016-02-19 16:11:15 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11502/1/32-15.pdf 11502 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc

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published 33200 2 71126 document 33200 lightbox.jpg image/png 2782f52af3a70fb356f73d6c7ee60a6e MD5 23027 2016-02-19 16:11:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11502/2/lightbox.jpg 11502 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33199 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33199 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33199 archive 351 disk0/00/01/15/02 2016-01-15 08:53:31 2021-08-27 17:39:56 2016-01-15 08:53:31 article show Loichinger E. 8480 Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment pub iis_pop prog_pop Europe; human capital; labor force projections BACKGROUND: One expected consequence of population aging in Europe is the shrinkage of the labor force. Most existing labor force projections allow only inferences about the size and age structure of the future labor force. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: In comparison to existing labor force projections, which disaggregate only by age and sex, these projections include information about the highest level of educational attainment (tertiary vs. non-tertiary education), so that an additional level of heterogeneity in labor force participation is considered. This heterogeneity enters the projection methodology through population projection data as well as labor force participation data, since both components are decomposed in the three dimensions of age, sex, and education. Based on data from the European Labor Force Survey (EU LFS), three scenarios were designed to project the economically active population for 26 EU countries up to 2053. RESULTS: Adding the educational dimension to labor force projections discloses a significant shift towards tertiary education degrees between 2008 and 2053. This educational upgrading of the European labor force is not driven by developments in a few large countries but can be expected to take place in each of the 26 analyzed countries. CONCLUSION: A better educated but shrinking labor force is likely to be able to alleviate some of the anticipated economic consequences of population aging. The presented projections of education-specific labor supply can serve as inputs into forecasts of economic growth that include educational differentials in labor productivity. 2015-02 published Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research 10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.15 XJ-15-060 Demographic Research; 32(15):443-486 (February 2015) [doi:10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.15] 186 public Demographic Research 32 15 443-486 TRUE 1435-9871 Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (FUTURESOC, FP7 230195) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/230195/Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change/FUTURESOC info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess