Carbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies

11542 13 80558 2 222920 document 80558 1-s2.0-S004016251300259X-main.pdf application/pdf 932f52af7a2759d4e86f7e2c8ae68c7e MD5 1383172 2018-01-24 13:05:29 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11542/1/1-s2.0-S004016251300259X-main.pdf 11542 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

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published 80575 2 222965 document 80575 lightbox.jpg image/png 14cecedad80cd259d6f7500556b72997 MD5 48179 2018-01-24 13:16:06 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11542/2/lightbox.jpg 11542 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80558 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80558 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80558 archive 351 disk0/00/01/15/42 2016-01-15 08:53:39 2021-08-27 17:25:16 2016-01-15 08:53:39 article show Bertram C. 8664 Johnson N. 1970 Luderer G. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Isaac M. Eom J. Carbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies pub iis_cli iis_ene prog_ene prog_tnt Climate change mitigation; Energy systems modeling; Energy efficiency; Carbon dioxide emissions; AMPERE; Integrated assessment Stringent long-term climate targets necessitate a limit on cumulative emissions in this century for which sufficient policy signals are lacking. Using nine energy-economy models, we explore how policies pursued during the next two decades impact long-term transformation pathways towards stringent long-term climate targets. Less stringent near-term policies (i.e., those with larger emissions) consume more of the long-term cumulative emissions budget in the 2010-2030 period, which increases the likelihood of overshooting the budget and the urgency of reducing GHG emissions after 2030. Furthermore, the larger near-term GHG emissions associated with less stringent policies are generated primarily by additional coal-based electricity generation. Therefore, to be successful in meeting the long-term target despite near-term emissions reductions that are weaker than those implied by cost-optimal mitigation pathways, models must prematurely retire significant coal capacity while rapidly ramping up low-carbon technologies between 2030 and 2050 and remove large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere in the latter half of the century. While increased energy efficiency lowers mitigation costs considerably, even with weak near-term policies, it does not substantially reduce the short-term reliance on coal electricity. However, increased energy efficiency does allow the energy system more flexibility in mitigating emissions and, thus, facilitates the post-2030 transition. 2015-01 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.001 XJ-15-020 Technological Forecasting and Social Change; 90(Part.A):62-72 (January 2015) (Published online 1 November 2013) [doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.001] Special Section 1149 137 250 public Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90 Part A 62-72 TRUE 1873-5509 Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates (AMPERE, FP7 265139) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/265139/EU/Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates/AMPERE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess