Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios

11544 12 80563 2 222945 document 80563 1-s2.0-S0040162513002424-main.pdf application/pdf b6cc6e85b2245f1648749a74fc6632ae MD5 888711 2018-01-24 13:13:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11544/1/1-s2.0-S0040162513002424-main.pdf 11544 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd

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published 80564 2 222950 document 80564 lightbox.jpg image/png d34bdbacb586d53902687486c862b90a MD5 45508 2018-01-24 13:14:12 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11544/2/lightbox.jpg 11544 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80563 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80563 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80563 archive 351 disk0/00/01/15/44 2016-01-15 08:53:39 2021-08-27 17:25:16 2016-01-15 08:53:39 article show Schaeffer M. Gohar L. Kriegler E. Lowe J. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 van Vuuren D.P. Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios pub iis_ene prog_ene prog_tnt Climate modeling; Copenhagen Pledges; Climate policy; AMPERE; Integrated assessment; Greenhouse gas emissions This paper explores the climate consequences of "delayed near-term action" and "staged accession" scenarios for limiting warming below 2 degrees-C. The stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels requires a large-scale transformation of the energy system. Depending on policy choices, there are alternative pathways to reach this objective. An "optimal" path, as emerging from energy-economic modeling, implies immediate action with stringent emission reductions, while the currently proposed international policies translate into reduction delays and higher near-term emissions. In our "delayed action" scenarios, low stabilization levels need thus to be reached from comparatively high 2030 emission levels. Negative consequences are higher economic cost as explored in accompanying papers and significantly higher mid-term warming, as indicated by a rate of warming 50% higher by the 2040s. By contrast, both mid- and long-term warming are significantly higher in another class of scenarios of staged "accession" that lets some regions embark on emission reductions, while others follow later, with conservation of carbon-price pathways comparable to the "optimal" scenarios. Not only is mid-term warming higher in "staged accession" cases, but the probability to exceed 2 degrees-C in the 21st century increases by a factor of 1.5. 2015-01 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.013 XJ-15-018 Technological Forecasting and Social Change; 90(Part.A):257-268 (January 2015) (Published online 31 October 2013) [doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.013] Special Section 250 public Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90 Part A 257-268 TRUE 1873-5509 Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates (AMPERE, FP7 265139) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/265139/EU/Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates/AMPERE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess