Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

11546 15 80559 2 222925 document 80559 1-s2.0-S0040162513002539-main.pdf application/pdf f6b448ee243e75be291fa73933dbc37b MD5 1497358 2018-01-24 13:07:10 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11546/1/1-s2.0-S0040162513002539-main.pdf 11546 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd

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published 80580 2 222971 document 80580 lightbox.jpg image/png 7b896451c0bd194f824812c3a6ab9643 MD5 44672 2018-01-24 13:17:37 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11546/2/lightbox.jpg 11546 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80559 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80559 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80559 archive 351 disk0/00/01/15/46 2016-01-15 08:53:40 2021-08-27 17:25:17 2016-01-15 08:53:40 article show Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Kriegler E. Johnson N. 1970 Bertram C. 8664 den Elzen M. AL0589 Schaeffer M. Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Luderer G. McCollum D.L. 8484 van Vuuren D.P. Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals pub iis_ene prog_ene prog_tnt Copenhagen pledges; Climate policy; AMPERE; Mitigation; Greenhouse gas emissions This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 degrees C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030. 2015-01 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016 XJ-15-016 Technological Forecasting and Social Change; 90(Part.A):8-23 (January 2015) (Published online 27 November 2013) [doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016] Special Section 250 137 1149 1830 166 203 public Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90 Part A 8-23 TRUE 1873-5509 Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates (AMPERE, FP7 265139) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/265139/EU/Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates/AMPERE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess