A metric for the prognostic outreach of scenarios: Learning from the past to establish a standard in applied systems analysis

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published 32612 2 69600 document 32612 lightbox.jpg image/png 9152f28386571135cc82acc4710fa10f MD5 18257 2016-02-17 18:20:30 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11662/8/lightbox.jpg 11662 8 8 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/32604 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/32604 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/32604 archive 351 disk0/00/01/16/62 2016-01-15 08:54:14 2021-08-27 17:25:30 2016-01-15 08:54:14 book_section show 1 Jonas M. 1351 0000-0003-1269-4145 Żebrowski P. 2086 0000-0001-5283-8049 Rovenskaya E. 8206 0000-0002-2761-3443 A metric for the prognostic outreach of scenarios: Learning from the past to establish a standard in applied systems analysis pub iis_env prog_asa 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions Our study concerns retrospective learning, the characteristic feature of which is that prognostic uncertainty increases the more the further we look into the future. RL seeks to establish a metric for the outreach of prognostic scenarios. The purpose behind RL is to provide an easy-to-apply indicator, which informs non-experts about the time in the future at which a prognostic scenario ceases to be in accordance (for whatever reasons) with the system’s past. Ideally, this indicator should be derived concomitantly with building a prognostic model. RL concerns the limitations of predictions and prognostic scenarios. 2015-10 published Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences http://www.ibspan.waw.pl/unws2015/index.php?go=presentations XP-15-007 [ISBN 83-894-7557-X] <http://webarchive.iiasa.ac.at/~jonas/CV%20IIASA/Uploads/4thUncWS%207-9oct15/Proceedings_4thWorkshop.pf> 138 343 260 public paper Warsaw, Poland 78-89 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions Cracow, Poland 7-9 October 2015 workshop 83-894-7557-X Proceedings, 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions, 7-9 October 2015, Krakow, Poland FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart