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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13844 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13844 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13844 archive 351 disk0/00/01/16/83 2016-01-15 08:54:20 2021-08-27 17:25:33 2016-01-15 08:54:20 monograph show 3 Kryazhimskiy A. 1514 Rovenskaya E. 8206 0000-0002-2761-3443 Veshchinskaya V. 8708 Gusti M. 97792 Shchepashchenko D. 7435 0000-0002-7814-4990 Shvidenko A. 1487 pub iis_for iis_mod prog_asa prog_esm net primary production of forest, multi-model ensembles, Bayesian approach This paper deals with the issue of reconciling competing stochastic estimates provided by independent sources. We employ an integration method based on a principle of mutual compatibility of prior estimates. The method does not take into account credibility of the sources of the estimates, including their past performance. The quality of integration is evaluated in terms of change in the probability distribution. We use the method to integrate two types of estimates of the annual Net Primary Production (NPP) of the forest ecosystems in seven bioclimatic zones in Russia. The estimates are generated based on an empirical landscape-ecosystem approach and on an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models; the gaps in thei estimates reach 23%. Elimination of the gaps may help better quantify the input of the terrestrial ecosystems to the global carbon cyce. The main result of this paper is the evidence of applicability of the method for selection a set of candidates for credible integrated estimates of uncertain ecological parameters (like forest NPP) integrating prior estimates. 2015-02 published IR-15-003 IR-15-003 1393 260 1640 114 279 281 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 24 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book