Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe

11695 13 32108 4 50982 document 32108 Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe.pdf application/pdf 7dadafcda30895780a10abeccca68e83 MD5 1678862 2016-01-25 13:29:46 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11695/1/Forest%20fires%20and%20adaptation%20options%20in%20Europe.pdf 11695 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc

Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe.pdf

accepted 32109 2 50985 document 32109 lightbox.jpg image/png dd14e3d388767f692707889cad3aa722 MD5 48478 2016-01-25 13:39:51 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11695/2/lightbox.jpg 11695 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/32108 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/32108 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/32108 archive 351 disk0/00/01/16/95 2016-01-15 08:54:23 2021-08-27 17:25:34 2016-01-15 08:54:23 article show 1 Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Krasovskii A.A. 8266 0000-0003-0940-9366 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Swart R. Dosio A. San-Miguel-Ayanz J. Durrant T. Camia A. Migliavacca M. Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe pub iis_cli iis_for prog_esm Forest fires; Europe; Adaptation; Climate change This paper presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art large-scale forest fire modelling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM's modelled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with observed data coming from two different sources (European Forest Fire Information System and Global Fire Emissions Database). Our estimation of the potential increase in burned areas in Europe under "no adaptation" scenario is about 200% by 2090 (compared with 2000-2008). The application of prescribed burnings has the potential to keep that increase below 50%. Improvements in fire suppression might reduce this impact even further, e.g. boosting the probability of putting out a fire within a day by 10% would result in about a 30% decrease in annual burned areas. By taking more adaptation options into consideration, such as using agricultural fields as fire breaks, behavioural changes, and long-term options, burned areas can be potentially reduced further than projected in our analysis. 2016-01 published Springer 10.1007/s10113-014-0621-0 XJ-16-033 Regional Environmental Change; 16(1):21-30 [January 2016] (Published online 7 September 2014) [doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0621-0] 151 164 219 public Regional Environmental Change 16 1 21-30 TRUE 1436-378X The terrestrial Carbon cycle under Climate Variability and Extremes – a Pan-European synthesis (CARBO-EXTREME, FP7 226701) Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming (IMPACT2C, FP7 282746) Economics of climate change adaptation in Europe (ECONADAPT, FP7 603906) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226701/EU//CARBO-EXTREME; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282746/EU//IMPACT2C; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603906/EU//ECONADAPT info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess