A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target

11706 13 50832 3 136233 document 50832 ngeo2595-aop.pdf application/pdf 78248943af037f00e90cc85da1640cb5 MD5 2405438 2016-04-20 06:52:51 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11706/1/ngeo2595-aop.pdf 11706 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

ngeo2595-aop.pdf

accepted 50833 2 136236 document 50833 lightbox.jpg image/png a64411b814d09968ca8845d3e442336a MD5 72509 2016-04-20 07:03:12 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11706/2/lightbox.jpg 11706 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/50832 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/50832 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/50832 archive 351 disk0/00/01/17/06 2016-01-15 08:54:25 2021-08-27 17:25:36 2016-01-15 08:54:25 article show Knutti R. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Sedlacek J. Fischer E.M. A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target pub iis_env prog_ene The world's governments agreed to limit global mean temperature change to below 2-derees C compared with pr-industrial levels in the years following the 2009 climate conference in Copenhagen. This 2-degrees C warming target is perceived by the pulic as a universally accepted goal, identified by scientists as a safe limit that avoids dangerous climate change. This perception is incorrect: no scientific assessment has clearly justified or defended the 2-degrees C target as a safe level of warming, and indeed, this is not a problem that science alone can address. We argue that global temperature is the best climate target quantity, but it is unclear what level can be consiered safe. The 2-degrees C target is useful for anchoring discussions, but has been ineffective in triggering the required emission reductions; debates on considering a lower target are strongly at odds with the current real-world level of action. These debates are moot, however, as the decisions that need to be taken now to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees C are very similar. We need to agree how to start, not where to end mitigation. 2016-01 published NPG 10.1038/ngeo2595 XJ-16-022 Nature Geoscience; [January 2016] (Published online 7 December 2015) [doi:10.1038/ngeo2595] 254 public Nature Geoscience 9 1 13-18 TRUE 1752-0908 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article