Adaptation to Increasing Risks of Forest Fires

11757 16 31805 3 44815 document 31805 Adaptation to Increasing Risks of Forest Fires.pdf application/pdf e66a1e2022140f374ee69058fb6d3eb4 MD5 493479 2016-01-18 15:43:23 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11757/1/Adaptation%20to%20Increasing%20Risks%20of%20Forest%20Fires.pdf 11757 1 1 application/pdf text Conference Poster en public cc_by_nc_sa

Adaptation to Increasing Risks of Forest Fires.pdf

published 31817 2 44845 document 31817 lightbox.jpg image/png a2d3ad0af9ae5dd7ad7cc55e9b2efb8f MD5 56341 2016-01-18 15:53:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11757/2/lightbox.jpg 11757 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/31805 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/31805 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/31805 archive 2 disk0/00/01/17/57 2016-01-18 15:46:52 2023-06-14 13:23:44 2016-01-18 15:46:52 conference_item show 1 Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Krasovskii A. 8266 0000-0003-0940-9366 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Swart R. Dosio A. San-Miguel-Ayanz J. Durrant T. Camia A. Migliavacca M. Adaptation to Increasing Risks of Forest Fires pub prog_esm This work presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art, large-scale forest fire modeling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modeled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with observed data coming from two different sources (European Forest Fire Information System and Global Fire Emissions Database). Our estimation of the potential increase in burned areas in Europe under ‘‘no adaptation’’ scenario is about 200% by 2090 (compared with 2000-2008). The application of prescribed burnings has the potential to keep that increase below 50%. Improvements in fire suppression might reduce this impact even further, for example, boosting the probability of putting out a fire within a day by 10% would result in about a 30% decrease in annual burned areas. By taking more adaptation options into consideration, such as using agricultural fields as fire breaks, behavioral changes, and long-term options, burned areas can be potentially reduced even further. 2015-11 published 151 164 219 public poster Systems Analysis 2015 - A Conference in Celebration of Howard Raiffa Laxenburg, Austria 11 -13 November, 2015 conference FALSE FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject