Global Implications of China's Future Food Consumption

11856 13 58569 3 164487 document 58569 Global implications of China's food consumption_final_for_publishing.pdf application/pdf 3ddc371e14cc7a47cf679d61c920e622 MD5 572177 2016-05-30 15:01:11 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11856/1/Global%20implications%20of%20China%27s%20food%20consumption_final_for_publishing.pdf 11856 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Global implications of China's food consumption_final_for_publishing.pdf

accepted 58572 2 164494 document 58572 lightbox.jpg image/png ef0cbd8d4487115b7e39a8c698cb0d06 MD5 32478 2016-05-30 15:11:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11856/2/lightbox.jpg 11856 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/58569 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/58569 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/58569 archive 2 disk0/00/01/18/56 2016-02-05 10:00:57 2021-08-27 17:40:09 2016-02-05 10:00:57 article show Yu Y. Feng K. Hubacek K. Sun L. 1681 Global Implications of China's Future Food Consumption pub Consumption patterns; Embodied land in trade; Food security; Global multiregion input-output (MRIO) model; Industrial ecology; Teleconnections Rapid economic growth and urbanization in China have led to a substantial change in consumption patterns and diet structure of Chinese consumers over the past few decades. A growing demand for feed, fuel, and fiber also places intense pressure on land resources. With continuing growth of China's economy and migration from rural to urban, the increase in food consumption and change in diet structure will likely continue, which will not only impose pressure on domestic land resources, but also exert impact on land resources in other countries through import. This article applies a global multiregion input-output (MRIO) model to trace agricultural land use along global supply chains and examines the impact of China's future food consumption on global land use in 2030 against different socioeconomic and technological scenarios. Our scenarios show that by 2030, China would need an additional 21% of cropland to support its increasing food demand, driven by population growth, urbanization, and income growth and the associated diet structure change. Almost one third of cropland associated with household consumption (34 million hectares [Mha]) will be "outsourced" to foreign countries, such as Argentina, Brazil, the United States, and Thailand, for the consumption of cereal grains, soybeans, and paddy rice. China also consumes 2.4 Mha of cropland from Africa for its consumption of cereal grains and oil seeds. The dependence of domestic consumption on significant amounts of foreign cropland shows that China would face serious challenges to meet its grain self-sufficiency policy in the future, and, at the same time, this dependence would contribute to environmental and food security problems elsewhere. 2016-06 published Wiley-Blackwell 10.1111/jiec.12392 302 public Journal of Industrial Ecology 20 3 593-602 TRUE 1530-9290 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article