Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

12019 25 33934 2 73929 document 33934 Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled.pdf application/pdf b5fbdd20ea2cc49520c014578b0bb93a MD5 1399450 2016-02-24 11:44:06 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12019/1/Differences%20between%20carbon%20budget%20estimates%20unravelled.pdf 12019 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled.pdf

submitted 33944 2 73957 document 33944 lightbox.jpg image/png ed21a46c2142a6e32bac9772b7187a4d MD5 27253 2016-02-24 12:44:08 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12019/2/lightbox.jpg 12019 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33934 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33934 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33934 archive 353 disk0/00/01/20/19 2016-02-24 10:11:50 2021-08-27 17:25:58 2016-02-24 10:11:50 article show Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Schaefer M. Friedlingstein P. Gillett N. van Vuuren D. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Allen M. Knutti R. Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled pub prog_ene Climate change, Climate-change mitigation Several methods exist to estimate the cumulative carbon emissions that would keep global warming to below a given temperature limit. Here we review estimates reported by the IPCC and the recent literature, and discuss the reasons underlying their differences. The most scientifically robust number — the carbon budget for CO2-induced warming only — is also the least relevant for real-world policy. Including all greenhouse gases and using methods based on scenarios that avoid instead of exceed a given temperature limit results in lower carbon budgets. For a >66% chance of limiting warming below the internationally agreed temperature limit of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, the most appropriate carbon budget estimate is 590–1,240 GtCO2 from 2015 onwards. Variations within this range depend on the probability of staying below 2 °C and on end-of-century non-CO2 warming. Current CO2 emissions are about 40 GtCO2 yr−1, and global CO2 emissions thus have to be reduced urgently to keep within a 2 °C-compatible budget. 2016-02-24 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/nclimate2868 254 250 public Nature Climate Change 6 3 245-252 TRUE 1758-678X FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article