Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change

12811 22 52008 3 141953 document 52008 Preserving the World Second largest Hypersaline lake.pdf application/pdf 0ed6591d93a0450cb92052606c15aff1 MD5 1999059 2016-05-02 12:16:21 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12811/1/Preserving%20the%20World%20Second%20largest%20Hypersaline%20lake.pdf 12811 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Preserving the World Second largest Hypersaline lake.pdf

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supplemental 61857 2 169818 document 61857 lightbox.jpg image/png 6335bf1e594058a9bad292677afeb192 MD5 11221 2016-06-14 12:45:41 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12811/8/lightbox.jpg 12811 8 8 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61856 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61856 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61856 archive 353 disk0/00/01/28/11 2016-04-20 07:42:56 2021-08-27 17:26:43 2016-04-20 07:42:56 article show 1 Shadkam S. 8718 Ludwig F. van Vliet M. 8728 Pastor A. 8843 Kabat P. 1953 Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change pub prog_esm prog_wat prog_esp Urmia Lake; Hypersaline lake; Climate change; Irrigation; Reservoirs; Hydrological model Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10⁹ m³ water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake. 2016-04-09 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.190 2829 350 226 141 public Science of the Total Environment 559 317-325 TRUE 1879-1026 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article