Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity

12884 18 51052 3 137646 document 51052 nclimate2995-s1.pdf application/pdf a648242312162df759b8c70d6923fb6d MD5 6461776 2016-04-22 07:00:05 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12884/1/nclimate2995-s1.pdf 12884 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

nclimate2995-s1.pdf

supplemental 51054 1 137651 document 51054 indexcodes.txt text/x-asm 078133d56129a973eff78787ce93c2bb MD5 5991 2016-04-22 07:09:27 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12884/2/indexcodes.txt 12884 2 2 text/x-asm other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en staffonly

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/51052 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/51052 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/51052 archive 353 disk0/00/01/28/84 2016-04-22 06:54:18 2021-08-27 17:26:46 2016-04-22 06:54:18 article show Deryng D. Elliott J. Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Müller C. Pugh T.A.M. Boote K.J. Conway D. Ruane A.C. Gerten D. Jones J.W. Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Olin S. Schaphoff S. Schmid E. Yang H. Rosenzweig C. Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity pub prog_esm Agriculture; Climate Change Impacts; Water Resources Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use1. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments1, 2 and global crop models3 to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated [CO2] and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find CO2 effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%–27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rainfed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated [CO2] could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4–17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modelling the effects of rising [CO2] across crop and hydrological modelling communities. 2016-04-18 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/NCLIMATE2995 92 151 public Nature Climate Change 6 4 1-8 TRUE 1758-678X Earth system Model Bias Reduction and assessing Abrupt Climate change (EMBRACE, FP7 282672) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282672/EU/Earth system Model Bias Reduction and assessing Abrupt Climate change/EMBRACE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess