12924 8 52043 1 142229 document 52043 Technology life–cycles.pdf application/pdf c36002776d9e5c6c2a2ccb526d43d991 MD5 4264373 2016-05-02 14:01:50 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12924/1/Technology%20life%E2%80%93cycles.pdf 12924 1 1 application/pdf text en public

Technology life–cycles.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/52043 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/52043 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/52043 52067 2 147203 document 52067 small.jpg image/png f559d797ac5ebc7709cdccbd9b99ff0c MD5 2172 2016-05-02 15:01:55 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12924/5/small.jpg 12924 5 5 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/52043 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/52043 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/52043 archive 5 disk0/00/01/29/24 2016-04-27 10:55:53 2021-08-27 17:26:49 2016-04-27 10:55:53 article show 1 Lee T.H. AL1642 Nakicenovic N. 395 0000-0001-7176-4604 pub prog_enp technology life cycles, business decisions, contingency planning, investment, decisions, R&amp, D decisions, S–curves, research and development, technology management Although the general phenomena of technology life–cycle have been known for a long time, quantitative description is still controversial. In the majority of cases, an S–curve fits the phenomena well. There are cases, however, that deviate from S–curves significantly. There is also the question of whether in real life the curve is as symmetrical as a pure S–curve. In real–life business situations, these arguments are rather academic. This paper shows that the life–cycle concept can he useful to decision–making in spite of the imperfect status. The authors first show that there may he more than one attribute of a technology that follows the S–pattern. They then point out the danger of using one attribute alone. The authors also illustrate the usefulness of the concept for contingency planning. and the phenomenon of multiple S–curves. 1988 published Inderscience Publishers 10.1504/IJTM.1988.025978 2672 214 public International Journal of Technology Management 3 4 411-426 TRUE 1741-5276 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article