An Interactive Model for Determining Coal Costs for a CO2-Game

1315 19 1341 3 2656 document 1341 WP-80-154.pdf application/pdf a9642e4c69bcd73015cb7af64f279015 MD5 848536 2016-01-15 01:47:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/1315/1/WP-80-154.pdf 1315 1 1 text en public

WP-80-154.pdf

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WP-80-154.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1341 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1341 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1341 archive 351 disk0/00/00/13/15 2016-01-15 01:47:43 2021-08-27 17:09:45 2016-01-15 01:47:43 monograph show 2 Stahl I. AL1247 An Interactive Model for Determining Coal Costs for a CO2-Game pub iis_cli iis_ene iis_frc iis_mnt iis_mod prog_mmt A question of great interest in assessing future energy options is whether the burning of carbon, in the future mainly coal, will continue increasing so that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere rises significantly, perhaps doubling by the middle of the next century. It is widely believed that such an increase in atmospheric CO2 would lead to an unprecedented warning of the earth's climate and possibly severe consequences for the economy and environment. A project, called Carbon and Climate Gaming, has recently been started at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis to examine this issue. An important pat of the project deals with the construction of a computer-based game focused on the extraction, trade, and burning of coal during the next half century. The game aims at investigating whether different nations will pursue independent myopic energy policies, leading to a potential "tragedy of the commons," or whether there will be some sort of international cooperation to avoid drastic climatic changes. For the game it is important to have forecasts of how the costs of extracting coal will develop in various countries over time, dependent on both the actual and the cumulative production quantities. Since these cost functions should appear reasonable to the players of the game it is desirable that the players themselves can, in a short time, construct or revise these functions. This can be done by the computer dialogue system presented here. By answering approximately thirty questions a player determines the parameters of the cost model. Since the player continuously obtains feedback about the implications of his answers and then can revise them, the dialogue can continue until the player obtains a total cost function that appears reasonable. 1980-09 published WP-80-154 WP-80-154 2417 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 27 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book