Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

13293 31 61947 2 169992 document 61947 NEnergy_oil_prices_pre.pdf application/pdf 3f0f7c709997559f440c7429207c8ea8 MD5 604389 2016-06-15 06:46:47 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13293/1/NEnergy_oil_prices_pre.pdf 13293 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

NEnergy_oil_prices_pre.pdf

submitted 61948 2 169995 document 61948 suppl.pdf application/pdf 1317449a6b420690b05c34dd8b25a92d MD5 922758 2016-06-15 06:47:07 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13293/2/suppl.pdf 13293 2 2 application/pdf text en public

suppl.pdf

supplemental 61949 2 169998 document 61949 lightbox.jpg image/png 31ba8e93ae4539b53fbf11115300b4f1 MD5 17121 2016-06-15 06:47:19 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13293/3/lightbox.jpg 13293 3 3 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 61950 2 169999 document 61950 preview.jpg image/png f73ca850f776359b71be5d567ccd601c MD5 7264 2016-06-15 06:47:20 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13293/4/preview.jpg 13293 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en public

preview.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 61951 2 170000 document 61951 medium.jpg image/png 6870a6af9757457169b0e58dbdcb34e0 MD5 3325 2016-06-15 06:47:21 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13293/5/medium.jpg 13293 5 5 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en public

medium.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 61952 2 170001 document 61952 small.jpg image/png e390edd8f7ff4dfef1e4a61c091b71ec MD5 1026 2016-06-15 06:47:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13293/6/small.jpg 13293 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 61953 1 170002 document 61953 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 9ec04d7024cdbe981fdfbf815fa1f379 MD5 12139 2016-06-15 06:47:35 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13293/7/indexcodes.txt 13293 7 7 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61948 61955 2 170004 document 61955 lightbox.jpg image/png df60955c972f1d3b16c7d4c52d2a6d9f MD5 33096 2016-06-15 06:57:15 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13293/9/lightbox.jpg 13293 9 9 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61947 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61947 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/61947 archive 2 disk0/00/01/32/93 2016-06-14 06:30:57 2021-08-27 17:27:09 2016-06-14 06:30:57 article show 1 McCollum D.L. 8484 Jewell J. 8535 0000-0003-2846-9081 Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Bazilian M. Fay M. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions pub prog_ene Climate-change mitigation, Decision making, Energy modelling, Fossil fuels Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty. 2016 NPG 10.1038/nenergy.2016.77 203 136 166 250 public Nature Energy 1 7 e16077 TRUE 2058-7546 Advanced Model Development and Validation for Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies (ADVANCE, FP7 308329) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308329/EU/Advanced Model Development and Validation for Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies/ADVANCE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess