Uncertainty in an Emissions Constrained World: Method Overview and Data Revision

13295 42 64487 3 175262 document 64487 ETU_data_WP-16-009_v1.0.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 75292f96ae05b7a1491b5b8027cfff7c MD5 5976498 2016-07-14 09:49:26 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13295/10/ETU_data_WP-16-009_v1.0.xlsx 13295 10 11 application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet other Dataset en public cc_by

ETU_data_WP-16-009_v1.0.xlsx

supplemental 71355 4 197923 document 71355 WP-16-009.pdf application/pdf e7913aabe9fda60d23a642b61a615d04 MD5 3762229 2016-10-04 12:46:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13295/11/WP-16-009.pdf 13295 11 11 application/pdf text en public cc_by

WP-16-009.pdf

published 22 d9b0ee68b850906a79ea8d5dafa1e9deba18bb83 71368 2 197946 document 71368 lightbox.jpg image/png fdc8b0c88b16bb626803f7498397527c MD5 15366 2016-10-04 12:56:53 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13295/12/lightbox.jpg 13295 12 12 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

indexcodes.txt

WP-16-009.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71355 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71355 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71355 archive 2 disk0/00/01/32/95 2016-06-16 13:22:31 2021-08-27 17:27:09 2016-07-11 10:23:21 monograph show 1 Jonas M. 1351 0000-0003-1269-4145 Żebrowski P. 2086 0000-0001-5283-8049 Elena Rovenskaya, Program Director Advanced Systems Analysis Uncertainty in an Emissions Constrained World: Method Overview and Data Revision pub prog_asa Uncertainty, Reduction Targets, GHG Emission Scenarios, ETU Framwork The authors are grateful to the Austrian Climate Research Programme [ACRP] for financing this working paper. The paper is part of the ClimTrans2050 project: Open Source Model for Analysing Austria’s Transition to a Low Carbon Society by 2050 - A Research Plan (ACRP7: KR14AC7K11796. The authors thank Anna Shchiptsova for intermittent data collection and assemblage. The study by Jonas et al. (2014) has received interest, notably by the Austrian Climate Research Programme [ACRP], regarding the use of the results at national scales. Jonas et al. discuss diagnostic (retrospective: looking back in time) and prognostic (prospective: looking forward in time) uncertainty in an emissions-temperature-uncertainty framework that allows any country to understand its near-term mitigation and adaptation efforts in a globally consistent and long-term context which includes all countries and stipulates global warming to range between 2 and 4 °C. To achieve this understanding, the study established national linear emission target paths (e.g., from 1990 to 2050) that are globally consistent. In this systems context, cumulative emissions until 2050 are constrained and globally binding but are uncertain (i.e., they can be estimated only imprecisely); and whether or not compliance with an agreed temperature target in 2050 and beyond will be achieved is also uncertain. In a nutshell, the emissions-temperature-uncertainty framework can be used to monitor a country’s performance - past as well as prospective achievements - in complying with a future warming target in a quantified uncertainty-risk context. Our working paper (i) recalls the background of the study by Jonas et al. in a condensed but comprehensive manner; and (ii) provides a detailed description of the study’s input and output data which have been updated in the meantime. The paper uses Austria as a case country, while placing it in a European and global context. 2016-07-13 WP-16-009 138 343 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book