Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

13303 17 62284 3 170702 document 62284 mmc1-1.docx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document 90132441e5315cd06bc10f302d86bf0c MD5 28081 2016-06-20 14:41:01 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13303/1/mmc1-1.docx 13303 1 3 application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document text en public cc_by

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supplemental 62285 1 170705 document 62285 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ ed2df184006cf08a0b87766a5070f5d2 MD5 3412 2016-06-20 14:41:10 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13303/2/indexcodes.txt 13303 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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published 76917 2 212559 document 76917 lightbox.jpg image/png 5b98acab9c3180953b9acb98f0f39157 MD5 49822 2017-03-31 12:18:20 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13303/4/lightbox.jpg 13303 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/76916 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/76916 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/76916 archive 2 disk0/00/01/33/03 2016-06-20 14:41:15 2021-08-27 17:27:10 2016-06-20 14:41:15 article show Mason-D'Croz Daniel Vervoort Joost Palazzo A. 1994 0000-0001-8167-9403 Islam Shahnila Lord Steven Helfgott Ariella Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Peou Rathana Sassen Marieke Veeger Marieke van Soesbergen Arnout Arnell Andrew P. Stuch Benjamin Arslan Aslihan Lipper Leslie Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia pub prog_esm Multi-stakeholder scenarios; Multi-model ensembles; Climate change; Agriculture and food security; Southeast Asia; Driver analysis Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to present alternative futures to inform policy. Nevertheless, many of these can limit the possibility space with which decision-makers engage. This paper will present a participatory scenario process that maintains a large possibility space through the use of multiple factors and factor-states and a multi-model ensemble to create and quantify four regional scenarios for Southeast Asia. To do this we will explain 1) the process of multi-factor, multi-state building was done in a stakeholder workshop in Vietnam, 2) the scenario quantification and model results from GLOBIOM and IMPACT, two economic models, and 3) how the scenarios have already been applied to diverse policy processes in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. 2016 Elsevier 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.008 223 119 public Environmental Modelling & Software 83 255-270 TRUE 1873-6726 GLOBIOM FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article