Uncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in crop yield simulations

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62351 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62351 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62351 62358 1 170866 document 62358 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ a719982a98978aa7b20688b594ed8b5c MD5 6246 2016-06-21 10:41:14 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13305/8/indexcodes.txt 13305 8 8 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62352 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62352 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62352 archive 2 disk0/00/01/33/05 2016-06-21 09:08:43 2021-08-27 17:27:11 2016-06-21 09:08:43 article show Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Skalsky R. 1986 0000-0002-0983-6897 Moltchanova E. 7915 Balkovic J. 1977 0000-0003-2955-4931 Azevedo L. 8735 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 van der Velde M. Uncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in crop yield simulations pub prog_esm Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are increasingly used for agro-environmental assessments and estimates of climate change impacts on food production. Recently, the influence of climate data and weather variability on GGCM outcomes has come under detailed scrutiny, unlike the influence of soil data. Here we compare yield variability caused by the soil type selected for GGCM simulations to weather-induced yield variability. Without fertilizer application, soil-type-related yield variability generally outweighs the simulated inter-annual variability in yield due to weather. Increasing applications of fertilizer and irrigation reduce this variability until it is practically negligible. Importantly, estimated climate change effects on yield can be either negative or positive depending on the chosen soil type. Soils thus have the capacity to either buffer or amplify these impacts. Our findings call for improvements in soil data available for crop modelling and more explicit accounting for soil variability in GGCM simulations. 2016 NPG 10.1038/ncomms11872 92 287 1460 23 21 219 public Nature Communications 7 art.no.11872 TRUE 2041-1723 Effects of phosphorus limitations on Life, Earth system and Society (IMBALANCE-P, FP7 610028) FALSE no info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/610028/EU/Effects of phosphorus limitations on Life, Earth system and Society/IMBALANCE-P info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess