The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62930 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62930 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62930 62991 1 172119 document 62991 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ 7dea4c0cfa69d7e8001f46053f0bf398 MD5 15071 2016-06-29 07:26:09 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13326/8/indexcodes.txt 13326 8 8 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62980 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62980 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/62980 archive 353 disk0/00/01/33/26 2016-06-29 07:24:23 2025-03-12 05:00:09 2016-06-29 07:24:23 article show Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Havlik P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Klimont Z. 1473 0000-0003-2630-198X Gusti M. 97792 Johnson N. 1970 Kolp P. 1793 0000-0003-0122-2839 Strubegger M. 1407 Valin H. 1923 0000-0002-0618-773X Amann M. 1136 0000-0002-1963-0972 Ermolieva T. 7638 Forsell N. 1999 Herrero M. Heyes C. 1540 0000-0001-5254-493X Kindermann G. 8178 0000-0003-4297-1318 Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 McCollum D. 8484 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Pachauri S. 1816 0000-0001-8138-3178 Rao S. 1771 Schmid E. Schöpp W. 1017 0000-0001-5990-423X Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century pub prog_air prog_ene prog_esm prog_tnt prog_mag Shared socioeconomic pathways; SSP; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Integrated assessment modeling; Mitigation; Adaptation Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century. 2017-01-28 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004 97 119 254 159 114 137 160 300 316 15 83 93 123 157 166 203 219 222 244 273 250 public Global Environmental Change 42 251-267 TRUE 1872-9495 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) GLOBIOM FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article