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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/64752 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/64752 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/64752 archive 2 disk0/00/01/33/60 2016-07-18 06:06:29 2025-03-26 05:00:13 2016-07-18 06:06:29 article show Hochrainer-Stigler S. 7958 0000-0002-9929-8171 Poledna S. 2083 pub prog_risk prog_rpv INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE “Data Intensive System Analysis for Geohazard Studies” (Session 1. Geophysical systems dynamics, data analysis and extreme events) 18–21 July 2016, Sochi region, Mountain cluster, Russia http://sochi2016.gcras.ru In the present work we introduce a copula approach to model dependencies between risks in large scale networks and show how this could be used to avoid underestimation of extreme events. Furthermore, we apply the approach within an agent based model to determine the macroeconomic consequences due to flood events. We show that without a copula approach only average annual losses on the country level would be available. However, with the copula approach, which includes the estimation of basin scale loss distribution through catastrophe modelling, exposure estimation through Corine land cover mapping, assessment of appropriate copulas and parameter estimation, including a algorithm to couple coupled basins as well as an upscaling procedure to the country level, the whole risk spectrum can be, for the first time on this scale, estimated. The direct loss estimates from the copula approach, separated into different risk bearers, are used to build a damage scenario generator which gives the input for the agent based model. The agent based model in turn assesses the additional indirect losses due to the event which can be much larger than the direct losses alone. 2016 Geophysical Center RAS 10.2205/2016BS01Sochi 126 235 public paper Geoinformatics Research Papers 4 BS4002 Data Intensive System Analysis for Geohazard Studies Sochi region, Mountain cluster, Russia 18-21 July 2016 conference TRUE 2308-5983 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article