Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/65491 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/65491 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/65491 archive 2 disk0/00/01/33/80 2016-07-20 13:48:11 2021-08-27 17:27:23 2016-07-20 13:48:11 article show Frank S. 1944 0000-0001-5702-8547 Böttcher H. Gusti M. 97792 Havlík P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Klaassen G. Kindermann G. 8178 0000-0003-4297-1318 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030 pub prog_esm 2030 climate and energy policy framework, greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target, LULUCF, land use change, forestry This study was financially supported by the European Commission – DG Climate Action through the tender contract ‘Development and application of EU economy-wide climate change mitigation modelling capacity (all greenhouse gas emissions and removals)’, contract ref no. 071303/2011/600928/SER/CL1MA.A.4. www.euclimit.eu A 2030 climate and energy policy framework was endorsed by the European Council in 2014. The main elements are a binding 40 % greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target compared to 1990, a renewable energy share of 27 %, and an energy savings target of at least 27 % by 2030. In this paper, we assess the impact of these targets on the European land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector using a Europe focused global land use model linked with a detailed forest management model. We show that implementing a 40 % GHG emission reduction target by 2030 may only have a small negative impact on the domestic LULUCF sink if the additional biomass demand for energy is mostly met through ligno-cellulosic energy crops rather than forest removals. However, if the increased biomass demand were met through higher rates of forest harvest removals, a more negative impact on the LULUCF sink could be expected. 2016-09 published Springer 10.1007/s10584-016-1729-7 94 114 119 157 219 public Climatic Change 138 1 253-266 TRUE 1573-1480 http://www.euclimit.eu/ org European Commission GLOBIOM FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article