The Analysis of Causal Linkages in Demographic Theory

1359 20 1394 3 2753 document 1394 WP-80-110.pdf application/pdf ed8c28be1e7b648d52215e7103594f37 MD5 1392660 2016-01-15 01:48:00 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/1359/1/WP-80-110.pdf 1359 1 1 text en public

WP-80-110.pdf

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WP-80-110.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1394 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1394 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/1394 archive 351 disk0/00/00/13/59 2016-01-15 01:48:00 2021-08-27 17:09:50 2016-01-15 01:48:00 monograph show 3 Arthur W.B. 518 The Analysis of Causal Linkages in Demographic Theory pub iis_pop iis_met prog_sds Many seemingly different questions that interest, demographers can be phrased as the same technical question: how, within a given demographic model, would variable y change if the age- or time-specific function f were to change arbitrarily in shape and intensity? At present demography lacks the machinery to answer this question in analytical and general form. This paper suggests a method, based on modern functional calculus, for deriving closed-form expressions for the sensitivity of demographic variables to changes in input functions or schedules. It uses this "causal linkage method" on three bodies of theory: stable population analysis, non-stable or transient population analysis, and demographic incomplete-data estimation techniques. In stable theory closed-form expressions are obtained for the response of the intrinsic growth rate, birth rate and age composition to arbitrary marginal changes in the fertility and mortality age patterns. In non-stable theory, expressions are obtained for the transient response of the age composition to time-varying changes in the birth sequence, and to changing age-specific fertility and mortality patterns. The problem of bias in period vital rates is also looked at. In incomplete data analysis a general format for robustness or error analysis is suggested; this is applied to a standard Brass estimation technique. 1980-05 published WP-80-110 WP-80-110 1694 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 52 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book