13816 14 71113 2 197104 document 71113 Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change.pdf application/pdf a77ab7d9ba4fcafed35af0cea77d4eb6 MD5 1536357 2016-09-20 11:00:42 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13816/1/Climate%20analogues%20suggest%20limited%20potential%20for%20intensification%20of%20production%20on%20current%20croplands%20under%20climate%20change.pdf 13816 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71113 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71113 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71113 71118 2 197115 document 71118 small.jpg image/png f929a2d83027ec9c196521fcab0f65d5 MD5 1468 2016-09-20 11:10:47 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13816/6/small.jpg 13816 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71113 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71113 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71113 archive 353 disk0/00/01/38/16 2016-09-20 11:05:35 2021-08-27 17:27:45 2016-09-20 11:05:35 article show Pugh T.A.M Müller C. Elliott J. Deryng D. Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Olin S. Schmid E. Arneth A. pub prog_esm Climate-change ecology; Climate-change impacts; Ecosystem services; Environmental impact Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand. 2016-09-20 published NPG doi:10.1038/ncomms12608 92 public Nature Communications 7 e12608 TRUE 2041-1723 Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation (LUC4C, FP7 603542) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603542/EU/Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation/LUC4C info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess