Modelling Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disaster Risk: A Large Scale Agent Based Modelling Approach Using Copulas

13875 8 71473 1 198203 document 71473 ModellingMacroeconomic.pdf application/pdf 3a95102d6dbed2419b1b2403201c1497 MD5 168894 2016-10-13 13:12:21 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13875/1/ModellingMacroeconomic.pdf 13875 1 1 application/pdf text en public

ModellingMacroeconomic.pdf

71474 2 198205 document 71474 lightbox.jpg image/png 45876ca96b66547ed22dcb21e986176c MD5 45081 2016-10-13 13:12:38 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13875/2/lightbox.jpg 13875 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71473 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71473 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/71473 archive 5 disk0/00/01/38/75 2016-10-13 13:12:47 2025-03-26 05:00:13 2016-10-13 13:12:47 conference_item show 2 Hochrainer-Stigler S. 7958 0000-0002-9929-8171 Poledna S. 2083 International Earthquake Engineering Association (IEEA) Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM) Modelling Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disaster Risk: A Large Scale Agent Based Modelling Approach Using Copulas pub prog_risk Flood Risk, Copula, Agent Based Modelling, Macroeconomic Effects, Austria We introduce a copula approach to model dependencies between risks and show how this could be used to avoid underestimation of extreme events in large-scale risk assessments. We apply the approach within an extensive agent based model to determine the macroeconomic consequences due to catastrophic events. The agent based approach is capable of modelling an entire national economy with all sectors, including households, firms and banks. It is based on an input-output model with 64 industries where all goods and services are produced endogenously. We show that without a copula approach only average annual losses on the country level would be available which limits analysis on long term effects. However, with the copula approach, which includes the estimation of basin scale loss distribution through catastrophe modelling, exposure estimation through Corine land cover mapping, assessment of appropriate copulas and parameter estimation, including an algorithm to couple coupled basins as well as an upscaling procedure to the country level, the whole risk spectrum can be estimated. The direct loss estimates from the copula approach, separated into different risk bearers, are used to build a damage scenario generator which gives the input for the agent based model. The agent based model in turn assesses the additional indirect losses due to the event which can be much larger than the direct losses alone. The agent based model is calibrated to the case of Austria at a scale 1: 10, e.g. with hundreds of thousands of agents and the agents are calibrated according to micro data, including business information, balance-sheets, and income statements. We show that there can be severe effects due to large scale natural disaster events through different transmission channels, even leading to systemic risks. This detailed information should be useful for determining risk management options on various scales. 2016-10 published Proceedings of Extended Abstracts 126 235 public paper 182-184 IDRiM 2016 7th International Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk Management Disasters and Development: Towards a Risk Aware Society Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran October 1-3, 2016 conference TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject