Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/75531 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/75531 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/75531 archive 2 disk0/00/01/42/75 2017-01-19 13:36:59 2021-08-27 17:28:27 2017-01-19 13:36:59 article show Schauberger B. Archontoulis S. Arneth A. Balkovic J. 1977 0000-0003-2955-4931 Ciais P. Deryng D. Eliott J. Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Müller C. Pugh T.A.M. Rolinski F. Schaphoff S. Schmid E. Wang X. Schlenker W. Frieler K. Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models pub prog_esm Agroecology, Agriculture, Climate change impacts High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation. 2017 NPG doi:10.1038/ncomms13931 23 92 151 public Nature Communications 8 art.no.13931 TRUE 2041-1723 High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX, FP7 603864) Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation (LUC4C, FP7 603542) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603864/EU/High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes/HELIX; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603542/EU/Land use change: assessing the net climate forcing, and options for climate change mitigation and adaptation/LUC4C info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess