Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/75979 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/75979 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/75979 76000 2 209868 document 76000 lightbox.jpg image/png 0c603b275211d42371b0e4367d12e493 MD5 68088 2017-02-09 18:14:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14349/9/lightbox.jpg 14349 9 9 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/75978 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/75978 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/75978 archive 2 disk0/00/01/43/49 2017-01-31 13:27:31 2021-08-27 17:28:29 2017-01-31 13:27:31 article show Peters G.P. Andrew R.M. Canadell J.G. Fuß S. 8259 Jackson R.B. Korsbakken J.I. Le Quéré C. Nakicenovic N. 395 0000-0001-7176-4604 Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement pub prog_ene prog_tnt Climate-change mitigation, Climate-change policy, Energy economics, Energy policy Current emission pledges to the Paris Agreement appear insufficient to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet, details are missing on how to track progress towards the ‘Paris goal’, inform the five-yearly ‘global stocktake’, and increase the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). We develop a nested structure of key indicators to track progress through time. Global emissions track aggregated progress, country-level decompositions track emerging trends that link directly to NDCs, and technology diffusion indicates future reductions. We find the recent slowdown in global emissions growth11 is due to reduced growth in coal use since 2011, primarily in China and secondarily in the United States. The slowdown is projected to continue in 2016, with global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry similar to the 2015 level of 36 GtCO2. Explosive and policy-driven growth in wind and solar has contributed to the global emissions slowdown, but has been less important than economic factors and energy efficiency. We show that many key indicators are currently broadly consistent with emission scenarios that keep temperatures below 2 °C, but the continued lack of large-scale carbon capture and storage threatens 2030 targets and the longer-term Paris ambition of net-zero emissions. 2017-01-30 published Springer Nature 10.1038/nclimate3202 101 214 public Nature Climate Change 7 2 118-122 TRUE 1758-678X FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article