A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

14498 15 76891 2 212471 document 76891 RockströmEtAl_2017_Science_A roadmap for rapid decarbonization.pdf application/pdf c65a82bc8340e6c3516c79ea05ec013e MD5 118636 2017-03-31 07:02:25 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14498/1/Rockstr%C3%B6mEtAl_2017_Science_A%20roadmap%20for%20rapid%20decarbonization.pdf 14498 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

RockströmEtAl_2017_Science_A roadmap for rapid decarbonization.pdf

accepted 76892 2 212474 document 76892 lightbox.jpg image/png ca5d1b01cada2085513d358c59f846da MD5 55386 2017-03-31 07:02:51 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14498/2/lightbox.jpg 14498 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/76891 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/76891 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/76891 archive 353 disk0/00/01/44/98 2017-03-24 07:53:28 2022-01-26 11:46:12 2017-03-24 07:53:28 article show Rockström J. Gaffney O. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Meinshausen M. Nakicenovic N. 395 0000-0001-7176-4604 Schellnhuber H.J. A roadmap for rapid decarbonization pub prog_ene Although the Paris Agreement's goals (1) are aligned with science (2) and can, in principle, be technically and economically achieved (3), alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism. Following the Agreement, which became international law earlier than expected, several countries published mid-century decarbonization strategies, with more due soon. Model-based decarbonization assessments (4) and scenarios often struggle to capture transformative change and the dynamics associated with it: disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change in human behavior. For example, in just 2 years, China's coal use swung from 3.7% growth in 2013 to a decline of 3.7% in 2015 (5). To harness these dynamics and to calibrate for short-term realpolitik, we propose framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global decadal roadmap based on a simple heuristic—a “carbon law”—of halving gross anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions every decade. Complemented by immediately instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down land-use CO2 emissions, this can lead to net-zero emissions around mid-century, a path necessary to limit warming to well below 2°C. 2017-03-24 published American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) 10.1126/science.aah3443 254 214 public Science 355 6331 1269-1271 TRUE 1095-9203 The World in 2050 (TWI2050) FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article