The Contribution of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation to Achieving Long-Term Temperature Goals

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/77328 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/77328 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/77328 archive 2 disk0/00/01/45/61 2017-05-04 09:20:08 2021-08-27 17:28:53 2017-05-04 09:20:08 article show 1 Gambhir A. Napp T. Hawkes A. Höglund-Isaksson L. 1786 0000-0001-7514-3135 Winiwarter W. 1775 0000-0001-7131-1496 Purohit P. 1873 0000-0002-7265-6960 Wagner F. 1789 0000-0003-3429-2374 Bernie D. Lowe J. The Contribution of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation to Achieving Long-Term Temperature Goals pub prog_air prog_mag non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs); climate change mitigation; long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) This paper analyses the emissions and cost impacts of mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a global level, in scenarios aimed at meeting a range of long-term temperature goals (LTTGs). The study combines an integrated assessment model (TIAM-Grantham) representing CO2 emissions (and their mitigation) from the fossil fuel combustion and industrial sectors, coupled with a model covering non-CO2 emissions (GAINS), using the latest global warming potentials from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. We illustrate that in general non-CO2 mitigation measures are less costly than CO2 mitigation measures, with the majority of their abatement potential achievable at US2005$100/tCO2e or less throughout the 21st century (compared to a marginal CO2 mitigation cost which is already greater than this by 2030 in the most stringent mitigation scenario). As a result, the total cumulative discounted cost over the period 2010–2100 (at a 5% discount rate) of limiting global average temperature change to 2.5 °C by 2100 is $48 trillion (about 1.6% of cumulative discounted GDP over the period 2010–2100) if only CO2 from the fossil fuel and industrial sectors is targeted, whereas the cost falls to $17 trillion (0.6% of GDP) by including non-CO2 GHG mitigation in the portfolio of options—a cost reduction of about 65%. The criticality of non-CO2 mitigation recommends further research, given its relatively less well-explored nature when compared to CO2 mitigation. 2017 10.3390/en10050602 128 335 239 321 public Energies 10 5 e602 TRUE 1996-1073 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article