Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78002 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78002 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78002 archive 2 disk0/00/01/46/31 2017-06-06 15:12:12 2021-08-27 17:29:03 2017-06-06 15:12:12 article show Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Meinshausen M. Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Zilliacus J.J.J. 2097 Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties pub prog_ene Climate-change mitigation, Climate-change policy, Socioeconomic scenarios The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO2e yr−1. We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time. 2017-06-06 NPG 10.1038/ncomms15748 254 97 166 346 250 public Nature Communications 8 e15748 TRUE 2041-1723 Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD-LINKS, H2020 642147) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642147/EU//CD-LINKS info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess