Emission pathways to achieve 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets

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Su_et_al-2017-Earth's_Future.pdf

accepted 78107 2 215541 document 78107 lightbox.jpg image/png e0dd4780fde11926c136ffa20b099bfc MD5 64445 2017-06-14 06:27:31 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14668/2/lightbox.jpg 14668 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78106 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78106 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78106 archive 5 disk0/00/01/46/68 2017-06-14 06:19:09 2021-08-27 17:29:07 2017-06-14 06:19:09 article show Su X. Takahashi K. Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Hasegawa T. 8463 Tanaka K. 8211 Kato E. Shiogama H. Masui T. Emori S. Emission pathways to achieve 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets pub prog_ene prog_esm Climate change; Integrated assessment models; DICE; Anthropogenic emissions; SSP scenarios We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets by considering the abatement potentials of a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the inter-temporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new marginal abatement cost curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development—the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land-use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds, SOx, NOx, black carbon and organic carbon. Third, we improved the treatment of the non-CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: (1) It is important to address the individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because abating land-use CO2, non-CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing and substantially affects the climate costs. (2) The 2.0°C target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. (3) The 1.5°C target can be met with early deep cuts under the assumption of a temperature overshoot, and it will triple the carbon price and double the mitigation cost compared with the 2.0°C case. 2017-06-12 published AGU Publications 10.1002/2016EF000492 2881 1314 1608 public Earth's Future 1-13 TRUE 23284277 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article