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journal.pone.0179171.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78211 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78211 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78211 78216 1 215825 document 78216 indexcodes.txt text/x-asm 7f249659a24d0dd6d532b6237c2a449f MD5 6960 2017-06-21 18:00:13 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14681/6/indexcodes.txt 14681 6 6 text/x-asm other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78211 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78211 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/78211 archive 353 disk0/00/01/46/81 2017-06-21 17:47:57 2021-08-27 17:29:08 2017-06-21 17:47:57 article show Sanderson W. 1631 Scherbov S. 7113 0000-0002-0881-1073 Gerland P. pub prog_pop We merge two methodologies, prospective measures of population aging and probabilistic population forecasts. We compare the speed of change and variability in forecasts of the old age dependency ratio and the prospective old age dependency ratio as well as the same comparison for the median age and the prospective median age. While conventional measures of population aging are computed on the basis of the number of years people have already lived, prospective measures are computed also taking account of the expected number of years they have left to live. Those remaining life expectancies change over time and differ from place to place. We compare the probabilistic distributions of the conventional and prospective measures using examples from China, Germany, Iran, and the United States. The changes over time and the variability of the prospective indicators are smaller than those that are observed in the conventional ones. A wide variety of new results emerge from the combination of methodologies. For example, for Germany, Iran, and the United States the likelihood that the prospective median age of the population in 2098 will be lower than it is today is close to 100 percent. 2017-06-21 published Public Library of Science (PLoS) 10.1371/journal.pone.0179171 265 270 public PLoS ONE 12 6 e0179171 TRUE 1932-6203 Reassessing Ageing from a Population Perspective (RE-AGEING, FP7 323947) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308438/EU//ENHANCE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/323947/EU/Reassessing Ageing from a Population Perspective/RE-AGEING info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess