Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO2

15002 10 80158 2 221423 document 80158 Greve_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_114021.pdf application/pdf 3c35463141014dda600d2a0079b91509 MD5 4068827 2017-12-18 07:23:30 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15002/1/Greve_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_114021.pdf 15002 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Greve_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_114021.pdf

published 80159 1 221430 document 80159 indexcodes.txt text/x-asm 8f9013d3a4471feaee4b2081ff9148cf MD5 8654 2017-12-18 07:31:41 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15002/2/indexcodes.txt 15002 2 2 text/x-asm other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80158 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80158 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80158 archive 353 disk0/00/01/50/02 2017-12-18 07:25:49 2021-08-27 17:29:43 2017-12-18 07:25:49 article show Greve P. 2142 Roderick M. Seneviratne S. Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO2 pub prog_wat Aridity is generally defined as the 'degree to which a climate lacks moisture to sustain life in terrestrial ecosystems'. Several recent studies using the 'aridity index' (the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation), have concluded that aridity will increase with CO2 because of increasing temperature. However, the 'aridity index' is—counterintuitively—not a direct measure of aridity per se (when defined as above) and there is widespread evidence that contradicts the 'warmer is more arid' interpretation. We provide here an assessment of multi-model changes in a broad set of aridity metrics over a large range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from conditions at the last glacial maximum to 4xCO2, using an ensemble of simulations from state-of-the-art Earth system models. Most measures of aridity do not show increasing aridity on global scales under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming, although we note some varying responses depending on the considered variables. The response is, furthermore, more nuanced at regional scales, but in the majority of regions aridity does not increase with CO2 in the majority of metrics. Our results emphasize that it is not the climate models that project overwhelming increases of aridity with increasing CO2, but rather a secondary, offline, impact model—the 'aridity index'—that uses climate model output as input. 2017-11-07 published Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) 10.1088/1748-9326/aa89a3 2897 public Environmental Research Letters 12 11 e114021 TRUE 1748-9326 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article