How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways?

15050 11 80380 3 222020 document 80380 10.1007%2Fs11625-017-0525-2.pdf application/pdf fce1923953e14d4b95b644ede2657d23 MD5 2779591 2018-01-16 09:03:31 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15050/1/10.1007%252Fs11625-017-0525-2.pdf 15050 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

10.1007%2Fs11625-017-0525-2.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80380 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80380 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80380 archive 5 disk0/00/01/50/50 2018-01-16 09:06:21 2021-08-27 17:29:48 2018-01-16 09:06:21 article show Su X. Shiogama H. Tanaka K. 8211 Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Hasegawa T. 8463 Hijioka Y. Takahashi K. Liu J. How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways? pub prog_esm Climate change; Climate-related uncertainties; Socioeconomic scenarios; Carbon prices; Mitigation costs; Adaptation costs We investigate how uncertainties in key parameters in the carbon cycle and climate system propagate to the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation needed to achieve the 2 and 1.5 °C targets by 2100 using a stochastic version of the simple climate model for optimization (SCM4OPT), an integrated assessment model. For the 2 °C target, we find a difference in 2100 CO2 emission levels of 20.5 GtCO2 (− 1.2 GtCO2 to 19.4 GtCO2), whereas this difference is 12.0 GtCO2 (− 6.9 GtCO2 to 5.1 GtCO2) for the 1.5 °C target (17–83% range). Total radiative forcing in 2100 is estimated to be 3.3 (2.7–3.9) Wm−2 for the 2 °C case and 2.5 (2.0–3.0) Wm−2 for the 1.5 °C case. Carbon prices in 2100 are 482 (181–732) USD(2005)/tCO2 and 713 (498–1014) USD(2005)/tCO2 for the 2 and 1.5 °C targets, respectively. We estimate GDP losses in 2100 that correspond to 1.9 (1.2–2.5)% of total gross output for the 2 °C target and 2.0 (1.5–2.7)% for the 1.5 °C target. 2018-03-18 published Springer Japan 10.1007/s11625-017-0525-2 1608 2881 1314 public Sustainability Science 13 2 291-299 TRUE 1862-4065 FALSE no info:eu-repo/semantics/article