Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy exporting regions

15086 21 80629 5 223090 document 80629 Subsidies paper full manuscript OA (003).pdf application/pdf c4b603d86996b0cf1983ebbdc86172f0 MD5 683275 2018-01-30 12:50:11 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15086/1/Subsidies%20paper%20full%20manuscript%20OA%20%28003%29.pdf 15086 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by

Subsidies paper full manuscript OA (003).pdf

accepted 80630 4 223073 document 80630 SI Subsidies paper 180115.pdf application/pdf 377c263f217d76b5bfa56a1ee8e17dba MD5 5365161 2018-01-30 10:59:10 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15086/2/SI%20Subsidies%20paper%20180115.pdf 15086 2 2 application/pdf text en public cc_by

SI Subsidies paper 180115.pdf

supplemental 80631 1 223080 document 80631 indexcodes.txt text/x-asm 6a4af25e0e365b07485230c0980e466f MD5 7428 2018-01-30 11:07:30 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15086/3/indexcodes.txt 15086 3 3 text/x-asm other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en staffonly

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 80632 1 223081 document 80632 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ d97ac4ea1310c785ab539c5fc99d7b8c MD5 17610 2018-01-30 11:07:31 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15086/4/indexcodes.txt 15086 4 4 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en staffonly

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 80634 2 223083 document 80634 preview.jpg image/png 3f442bd16608230106f824a28766117e MD5 22524 2018-01-30 11:08:02 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15086/6/preview.jpg 15086 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en staffonly

preview.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 80635 2 223084 document 80635 medium.jpg image/png 2d8f7f749a5b1a50facab00f86a8f333 MD5 6579 2018-01-30 11:08:03 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15086/7/medium.jpg 15086 7 7 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en staffonly

medium.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 80636 2 223085 document 80636 small.jpg image/png a27ce221dce26990a95edfbbec9e6bef MD5 1942 2018-01-30 11:08:04 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15086/8/small.jpg 15086 8 8 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en staffonly

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80629 80637 2 223086 document 80637 lightbox.jpg image/png 7683a6a47766ab9fb9096968e50923c7 MD5 44244 2018-01-30 11:09:39 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15086/9/lightbox.jpg 15086 9 9 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en staffonly

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80630 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80630 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80630 archive 353 disk0/00/01/50/86 2018-02-08 07:06:52 2021-08-27 17:29:51 2018-02-08 07:06:52 article show Jewell J. 8535 0000-0003-2846-9081 McCollum D. 8484 Emmerling J. Bertram C. Gernaat D.E.H.J. Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Paroussos L. Berger L. Fragkiadakis K. Keppo I. Failali N.S. Tavoni M. van Vuuren D. Vinichenko V. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy exporting regions pub prog_ene Climate-change mitigation, Climate-change policy Hopes are high that removing fossil fuel subsidies could help to mitigate climate change by discouraging inefficient energy consumption and levelling the playing field for renewables1–3. In September 2016, the G20 countries re-affirmed their 2009 commitment (at the G20 Leaders’ Summit) to phase out fossil fuel subsidies4,5 and many national governments are using today’s low oil prices as an opportunity to do so6–9. In practical terms, this means abandoning policies that decrease the price of fossil fuels and electricity generated from fossil fuels to below normal market prices10,11. However, whether the removal of subsidies, even if implemented worldwide, would have a large impact on climate change mitigation has not been systematically explored. Here we show that fossil fuel subsidy removal would have a small impact on global energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions and would not increase renewable energy use by 2030. Subsidy removal would reduce the carbon price necessary to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration at 550 parts per million by only 2–12 per cent under low oil prices. Removing subsidies in most regions would deliver smaller emission reductions than the Paris Agreement (2015) climate pledges and in some regions global subsidy removal may actually lead to an increase in emissions, owing to either coal replacing subsidized oil and natural gas or natural-gas use shifting from subsidizing, energy-exporting regions to non-subsidizing, importing regions. Our results show that subsidy removal would result in the largest CO2 emission reductions in oil- and gas-exporting regions, where reductions would exceed their climate pledges and where subsidy removal would also affect fewer people below the poverty line than in lower-income regions. 2018-02-08 published Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/nature25467 136 203 166 250 public Nature 554 7691 229-233 TRUE 0028-0836 Advanced Model Development and Validation for Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies (ADVANCE, FP7 308329) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308329/EU/Advanced Model Development and Validation for Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies/ADVANCE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess