How much energy will buildings consume in 2100? A global perspective within a scenario framework

15096 14 80672 4 223212 document 80672 1-s2.0-S0360544218301671-main.pdf application/pdf 2d4285226f637dd002f0f9d25260a280 MD5 1676403 2018-02-05 07:11:05 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15096/1/1-s2.0-S0360544218301671-main.pdf 15096 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80672 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80672 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80672 archive 353 disk0/00/01/50/96 2018-02-05 07:15:17 2021-08-27 17:29:52 2018-02-05 07:15:17 article show Levesque A. Pietzcker R.C. Baumstark L. De Stercke S. 1984 Grubler A. 1115 0000-0002-7814-4990 Luderer G. How much energy will buildings consume in 2100? A global perspective within a scenario framework pub prog_tnt Buildings energy demand; SSP; Energy models; Projections; Space heating; Space cooling The demand for energy in buildings varies strongly across countries and climatic zones. These differences result from manifold factors, whose future evolution is uncertain. In order to assess buildings' energy demand across the 21st century, we develop an energy demand model—EDGE— and apply it in an analytical scenario framework—the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) — to take socio-economic uncertainty into consideration. EDGE projects energy demand for five energy services, four fuel categories, and eleven regions covering the world. The analysis shows that, without further climate policies, global final energy demand from buildings could increase from 116 EJ/yr in 2010 to a range of 120–378 EJ/yr in 2100. Our results show a paradigm shift in buildings' energy demand: appliances, lighting and space cooling dominate demand, while the weight of space heating and cooking declines. The importance of developing countries increases and electricity becomes the main energy carrier. Our results are of high relevance for climate mitigation studies as they create detailed baselines that define the mitigation challenge: the stress on the energy supply system stemming from buildings will grow, though mainly in the form of electricity for which a number of options to decrease GHG emissions exist. 2018-04-01 published Elsevier 10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.139 1205 112 public Energy 148 514-527 TRUE 0301-4215 Innovation pathways, strategies and policies for the Low-Carbon Transition in Europe (INNOPATHS, H2020 730403) Advanced Model Development and Validation for Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies (ADVANCE, FP7 308329) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308329/EU//ADVANCE;info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/730403/EU//INNOPATHS info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess