A Formalism for Management of Surprise or How I Learned to Design Dams and to Hate Systems-Analysis

151 33 126 4 276 document 126 WP-74-020.pdf application/pdf b44a3eb990eb1d560369ab738ae37c55 MD5 384726 2016-01-15 01:40:56 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/151/1/WP-74-020.pdf 151 1 1 text en public

WP-74-020.pdf

22 7bdbccb376c23380f6e39d4086ec560fcf3c57ba 31116 1 42848 document 31116 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ c7a478dde8febf9555fcc92b97c4588a MD5 6915 2016-01-15 23:53:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/151/2/indexcodes.txt 151 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 31132 2 42864 document 31132 lightbox.jpg image/png 92618834df2ebf13e392bb77059a0eb1 MD5 10394 2016-01-15 23:54:08 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/151/3/lightbox.jpg 151 3 3 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

lightbox.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 31133 2 42865 document 31133 preview.jpg image/png d36a0e4b49d144b0f8edd6a28cbf5a44 MD5 4823 2016-01-15 23:54:09 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/151/4/preview.jpg 151 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en public

preview.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 31134 2 42866 document 31134 medium.jpg image/png 362b1d2edd310bfa3418b54ff6e88271 MD5 3147 2016-01-15 23:54:10 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/151/5/medium.jpg 151 5 5 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en public

medium.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 31135 2 42867 document 31135 small.jpg image/png 7cd20c27d9e04bbfc4142adc89989af8 MD5 877 2016-01-15 23:54:10 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/151/6/small.jpg 151 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 83462 2 234474 document 83462 WP-74-020.pdf application/pdf 53f8d27c2ec880fbc325fd4fae9d58d4 MD5 1076604 2018-03-14 15:02:04 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/151/7/WP-74-020.pdf 151 7 7 application/pdf other Coversheet version en public

WP-74-020.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/126 archive 351 disk0/00/00/01/51 2016-01-15 01:40:55 2021-08-27 17:07:31 2016-01-15 01:40:55 monograph show 2 Fiering M.B. AL12007 A Formalism for Management of Surprise or How I Learned to Design Dams and to Hate Systems-Analysis pub iis_mod iis_sys iis_wat prog_ren After many centuries of designing engineering structures and systems within a deterministic framework, it has become fashionable to deal explicitly with uncertainty as an important component of planning and design strategies. Advances in applied statistical decision theory, coupled with the wide availability of computing machinery, are at the root of this transformation, and the recent literature is replete with studies of systems, large and small, under various conditions of uncertainty. This paper deals with a few rules for decision-making under a special category of uncertainty -- namely that associated with the occurrence of events which could not be foretold, let alone assigned a prior probability of realization within a given design horizon. 1974 published WP-74-020 WP-74-020 10 2626 public working_paper IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 16 FALSE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book