Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply

15118 15 80784 2 223660 document 80784 Balkovi-_et_al-2018-Earth's_Future.pdf application/pdf 68fe8165b958c6519c98f8282dcb937a MD5 3771682 2018-02-13 07:52:32 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15118/1/Balkovi-_et_al-2018-Earth%27s_Future.pdf 15118 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd

Balkovi-_et_al-2018-Earth's_Future.pdf

accepted 80785 2 223667 document 80785 lightbox.jpg image/png 10fdceb73395cc9f4e157f4a5501c7f8 MD5 50520 2018-02-13 08:02:45 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15118/2/lightbox.jpg 15118 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80784 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80784 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/80784 archive 5 disk0/00/01/51/18 2018-02-13 07:54:17 2021-08-27 17:29:55 2018-02-13 07:54:17 article show Balkovic J. 1977 0000-0003-2955-4931 Skalsky R. 1986 0000-0002-0983-6897 Folberth C. 2033 0000-0002-6738-5238 Khabarov N. 1850 0000-0001-5372-4668 Schmidt E. AL1185 Madaras M. 8944 Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 van der Velde M. 1938 Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply pub prog_esm EPIC; EURO-CORDEX; calorie yield; biophysical impact assessment Even if global warming is kept below +2°C, European agriculture will be significantly impacted. Soil degradation may amplify these impacts substantially and thus hamper crop production further. We quantify biophysical consequences and bracket uncertainty of +2°C warming on calories supply from ten major crops and vulnerability to soil degradation in Europe using crop modelling. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model together with regional climate projections from the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) were used for this purpose. A robustly positive calorie yield change was estimated for the EU Member States except for some regions in Southern and South-Eastern Europe. The mean impacts range from +30 Gcal ha–1 in the north, through +25 and +20 Gcal ha–1 in Western and Eastern Europe, respectively, to +10 Gcal ha–1 in the south if soil degradation and heat impacts are not accounted for. Elevated CO2 and increased temperature are the dominant drivers of the simulated yield changes in high-input agricultural systems. The growth stimulus due to elevated CO2 may offset potentially negative yield impacts of temperature increase by +2°C in most of Europe. Soil degradation causes a calorie vulnerability ranging from 0 to 80 Gcal ha–1 due to insufficient compensation for nutrient depletion and this might undermine climate benefits in many regions, if not prevented by adaptation measures, especially in Eastern and North-Eastern Europe. Uncertainties due to future potentials for crop intensification are about two to fifty times higher than climate change impacts. 2018-02-12 published Wiley & Sons, Inc. 10.1002/2017EF000629 23 287 92 151 2362 2598 219 1631 public Earth's Future 6 3 373 -395 TRUE 23284277 Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming (IMPACT2C, FP7 282746) Effects of phosphorus limitations on Life, Earth system and Society (IMBALANCE-P, FP7 610028) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/282746/EU//IMPACT2C; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/610028/EU//IMBALANCE-P info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess